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When It Comes to Investing, Time is on Your Side

Written on October 14, 2008 by George Krueger & Mary-Lynn Foster in Money, Time Management

time_money On Tuesdays, we usually talk about time issues – time management, productivity and getting things done. But today, with the volatility of the stock market, we thought we’d take a look at how time affects your investments.

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It took many years to create a portfolio of value. It’s been frustrating to see that value fall so quickly. But we’re reminded of a Gordon Gekko quote from the movie Wall Street:

“Don’t get emotional about stocks. It clouds the judgment.”

Yet that’s exactly what we tend to do. We get emotional and do the opposite of what we should do. We should buy low and sell high. We buy high on exuberance and sell low in a panic.

The smart money does just the opposite. It buys low in the panic and sells high on exuberance.

A look back at the Dow

We ran some calculations to see if there is a benefit to buying and holding for a period of time. We specifically looked at the Dow Jones Industrial Average because it’s the basket of stocks with the longest history.

Going all the way back to 1896, we assumed we bought the Dow on the last day of every year right before the close. We looked at every period up to December 31, 2007. Then we looked at holding periods of:

1 year
2 years
3 years
5 years
10 years

We looked at two specific things for each holding period: our return and our chance of losing money.

Risk and return results

We found that the longer we held the Dow stocks, the better our return with one exception – the average 3-year return was lower than the average 2-year return.

Even more interesting, we found that the longer we held, the less likely we were to lose money:

In one year increments, we had a one in three chance of losing money.
Over five year time frames, we had a one in four chance of a decline in the value.
Of the ten year periods, we only lost money in one out of five cases.

Then we looked a little deeper – to the size of the volatility. The range of highs and lows went down over time, so the downside was as follows:

About 14% for the 1-year increments
About 2.75% if we invest over 5-years
0.55% for the 10-year ranges

So based on these historical numbers, the longer you hold your portfolio, the less likely you are to lose money and, if you do, the less you are likely to lose.

Just remember – the past doesn’t necessarily predict the future. However, it’s not unreasonable to use it as a guide.

Beyond the Dow

You’ll most likely invest in a bigger basket than the Dow. You’ll also probably want to invest in more than just U.S. stocks. You’ll also almost certainly invest in bonds and other assets. As a general rule, the more diversified you are, the more likely longer time periods will work in your favor – even beyond what we’ve shown here.

You, CIO

Here’s something we can’t possibly emphasize enough – no one will look after your money like you will. You are the Chief Investment Officer for you and your family. So it’s important to understand investing basics.

DIY doesn’t work

Having said that, do-it-yourself investing doesn’t work well for most of us. So plan to outsource and inspect. Your most critical decision, then, is the hiring decision. You’re not trying to figure out specific stocks to buy, how to allocate your assets among stocks, and those kinds of decisions.

Turning to professionals

With full knowledge of investing basics, you’re ready to work with a certified financial planner to help you plan your retirement portfolio. You’re also ready to invest in mutual funds with proven managers.

Time is money in the bank

As we saw with the Dow, time is money in your account. So keep investing – month after month or paycheck after paycheck. In times like these, you’ll get a sweet deal. The smart money is getting it too! You’re buying low so you can sell high later.

That puts time on your side!

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Squirrels, Nuts and Business Cycles

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Squirrels, Nuts and Business Cycles

Written on October 6, 2008 by George Krueger & Mary-Lynn Foster in Business, Money

squirrel You might think that our title has something to do with the recent behavior of Wall Street and Washington. It probably could, but in this case, it doesn’t.

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It does refer to seasons. We’re in the Midwestern United States. We’re heading into fall which, of course, means winter is just around the corner. Squirrels are busy hoarding up nuts so they will have the food they need to sustain them through the winter months.

Hot and cold, boom and bust

Like the seasons, our economy moves through times when things are hot and times when they’re cold. We experience booms and busts.

It’s interesting, though, that our friends in the southern hemisphere are just heading into spring. Things are heating up there while they’re cooling down here! It reminds us that most businesses do best during the boom times, but some actually prosper when times are tough.

Almost every business has products or services that will do better when the economy isn’t doing as well. With your offerings, which ones will save your clients money? Those are the items you should promote now as consumers seek to stretch their budget.

Your cash stash

Speaking of stretching our budgets, just like squirrels hoarding nuts for winter, we should all make sure we have an emergency cash reserve. Financial planners recommend keeping between three to six months of living costs stashed safely away for ready access.

In recent times, some have suggested a Home Equity Line-of-Credit could be substituted for this cash reserve. Only you can decide if that’s the right option for you; however, with what’s going on with banks and the credit markets, it may pay not be your best option for your crucial cash stash.

If you own a business, you should also look at your working capital. Is it adequate to take you through a slow season? If not, look for ways to cut your costs so you can shore up your cash hoard.

Purchasing out of season

The seasons also create opportunities for us when we’re purchasing. For example, if you live where we live, you’ll probably get a better deal right now on a lawn mower than a snow blower. Timing your purchase when demand is down on these bigg ticket items can save you money.

Tougher times also create opportunities for us as consumers. Businesses still have bills to pay. They want to keep the doors open. So they may cut deals now that they would never consider in good times.

Purchasing in season

With other items, you’re better off buying in season. Retailers will often lure you to their stores by drastically discounting these items. For example, isn’t turkey cheaper right before Thanksgiving than any other time?

Smart Money has a great article about the best time to buy everything. Planning when to buy is just as important as what you buy. Buying on impulse less often will save you bigg money more often!

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