Tag Archive: volatility

3 Questions for a Brighter Future

questions You and you alone create your future. You are the only person, place or thing with that power. With that being the case, it's up to you to create the future of your dreams.

One way to do that is to look back so you can look forward. Reflecting upon the past and pulling lessons away so your future is bigger and brighter. With the New Year upon us, now is a great time to review last year so next year lives up to its promise for you.

There's a simple three-stage framework for performing this exercise. It involves asking yourself three questions:

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icon for podpress  Hear George & Mary-Lynn discuss the 3 questions on The Bigg Success Show! Click the purple player: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

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What?

Start with the actual events of this year. What happened? Describe major events in your life. As you record your answers, test your perceptions to make sure they reflect the reality of the situation. If it helps, pretend that you are a reporter objectively recording the facts of the event.

So what?

At this stage, you move from reporting to understanding, from logic to emotion. That's why it was so important to get the facts right in the first step. What did this experience mean to you? How did it make you feel? Why did you feel that way? What have you learned?

Now what?

The previous two questions lead to this one. How will you apply the lessons you learned? What specific actions will you take as a result of the events you've outlined?

These three simple questions serve as a great outline to review major events in your life and develop forward-thinking plans to be a bigg success.

Let’s look at a couple of examples, using events from 2008.

Example: Volatile stocks

What?
The stock market can be very volatile.

So what?
I can lose money if I don’t understand the risk and how to manage it.

Now what?
I will learn more about investing and asset allocation. I won’t invest money in stocks that I will need in the next ten years. I will pay closer attention to my quarterly reports to make sure I maintain the proper asset allocation given my age and goals.

Example: Layoffs

What?
Times are tough at work; layoffs are possible.

So what?
It makes me nervous. I think I could lose my job.

Now what?
I will look for ways to help my company save money. I will make sure my boss is aware of the projects I complete successfully. I will look for opportunities to add additional skills so I’m more competitive.

Solid goals

In our examples, the “Now what’s” are a little bit fuzzy. You really want to refine them to turn them into solid goals. For instance, looking at the second example, instead of saying “I will look for ways to help my company save money,” turn that into “I will find one way to save my company $X (you pick a relevant amount) in the next 30 days.”

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Would you like more help turning your thoughts into concrete goals? Get our FREE Goal-Setting Workbook when you subscribe to the Bigg Success Weekly – it’s FREE too!

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We really appreciate you taking the time to read our post today. Join us next time when we look at the most important people of 2008. We think you’ll be surprised at our choices! Until then, here’s to your bigg success!

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Direct link to The Bigg Success Show audio file:
http://media.libsyn.com/media/biggsuccess/00297-123008.mp3

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When It Comes to Investing, Time is on Your Side

time_money On Tuesdays, we usually talk about time issues – time management, productivity and getting things done. But today, with the volatility of the stock market, we thought we’d take a look at how time affects your investments.

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icon for podpress  Hear George & Mary-Lynn talk about today's post on The Bigg Success Show! Click the purple player: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

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It took many years to create a portfolio of value. It’s been frustrating to see that value fall so quickly. But we’re reminded of a Gordon Gekko quote from the movie Wall Street:

“Don’t get emotional about stocks. It clouds the judgment.”       

Yet that’s exactly what we tend to do. We get emotional and do the opposite of what we should do. We should buy low and sell high. We buy high on exuberance and sell low in a panic.

The smart money does just the opposite. It buys low in the panic and sells high on exuberance.

A look back at the Dow

We ran some calculations to see if there is a benefit to buying and holding for a period of time. We specifically looked at the Dow Jones Industrial Average because it’s the basket of stocks with the longest history.

Going all the way back to 1896, we assumed we bought the Dow on the last day of every year right before the close. We looked at every period up to December 31, 2007. Then we looked at holding periods of:

  • 1 year
  • 2 years
  • 3 years
  • 5 years
  • 10 years

We looked at two specific things for each holding period: our return and our chance of losing money.

Risk and return results

We found that the longer we held the Dow stocks, the better our return with one exception – the average 3-year return was lower than the average 2-year return.

Even more interesting, we found that the longer we held, the less likely we were to lose money:

  • In one year increments, we had a one in three chance of losing money.
  • Over five year time frames, we had a one in four chance of a decline in the value.
  • Of the ten year periods, we only lost money in one out of five cases.

Then we looked a little deeper – to the size of the volatility. The range of highs and lows went down over time, so the downside was as follows:

  • About 14% for the 1-year increments
  • About 2.75% if we invest over 5-years
  • 0.55% for the 10-year ranges

So based on these historical numbers, the longer you hold your portfolio, the less likely you are to lose money and, if you do, the less you are likely to lose.

Just remember – the past doesn’t necessarily predict the future. However, it’s not unreasonable to use it as a guide.

Beyond the Dow

You’ll most likely invest in a bigger basket than the Dow. You’ll also probably want to invest in more than just U.S. stocks. You’ll also almost certainly invest in bonds and other assets. As a general rule, the more diversified you are, the more likely longer time periods will work in your favor – even beyond what we’ve shown here.

You, CIO

Here’s something we can’t possibly emphasize enough – no one will look after your money like you will. You are the Chief Investment Officer for you and your family. So it’s important to understand investing basics.

DIY doesn’t work

Having said that, do-it-yourself investing doesn’t work well for most of us. So plan to outsource and inspect. Your most critical decision, then, is the hiring decision. You’re not trying to figure out specific stocks to buy, how to allocate your assets among stocks, and those kinds of decisions.

Turning to professionals

With full knowledge of investing basics, you’re ready to work with a certified financial planner to help you plan your retirement portfolio. You’re also ready to invest in mutual funds with proven managers.

Time is money in the bank

As we saw with the Dow, time is money in your account. So keep investing – month after month or paycheck after paycheck. In times like these, you’ll get a sweet deal. The smart money is getting it too! You’re buying low so you can sell high later.

That puts time on your side!

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