Spring is here. It’s been teasing us lately with some pretty warm days. We’re looking forward to the green that comes with spring. And speaking of green, let’s talk about another kind of spring – a spring that has to do with the economy – Kondratiev Spring.
The long cycle
We’re all familiar with business cycles – a boom followed by a bust. Lately, it’s been more like a boom, followed by a bubble and then a bust!
There’s another cycle with which you may not be familiar. It’s a long cycle called a Kondratiev wave. It’s named for the Russian economist who observed that capitalistic economies go through forty to sixty year cycles as well as business cycles.
Winter is the time of decline but it is also the time for creative destruction, to use the term popularized by Joseph Schumpeter.
It’s the time for entrepreneuring!
As the excesses of the previous seasons are wrung out, opportunity presents itself. Innovation is sparked.
That’s what gets us out of the Kondratiev Winter.
If you think about the calendar year and the developed world, winter is the only season that is split up. We begin the year in winter and end the year in winter.
Who can doubt that we’ve experienced a Kondratiev Winter? There are just two questions:
1. When did it start?
One obvious thought is that it started in 2007 or 2008 as the housing bubble crashed. However, some experts believe that the Kondratiev Winter actually started with the bursting of the dot-com bubble in the year 2000.
2. How long will it last?
Kondratiev Winters can last ten to fifteen years. So we may have seven or eight years to go. Or we may be entering Spring now.
How does this affect you?
Bigg success is about entrepreneuring your life – taking full control to design and build the life that perfectly fits you. So let’s talk about some entrepreneurial strategies revolving around the Kondratiev wave:
Winter is the time for creativity.
It’s the time to test new ideas. If an idea can survive Winter, it should do great in the Spring.
Spring is the time for growth.
You’ve tested ideas in the Winter. Feed the ones that show promise. Kill the ones that don’t.
You feed the good ones by investing time and money, two of the five elements of bigg success.
Bigg opportunities are right in front of us now.
Depending on who you listen to, we’re either on the verge of Spring or we have a little way to go. In either case, now is the time to act.
Time’s a wasting! In fact, if we’re on the verge of Spring, you better really act fast on that great idea you have!
Every season presents opportunities.
Yes, it’s time to act on your great idea. But don’t feel like it’s an all or nothing thing. There are always opportunities. You just have to find them.
Here’s why thinking about Kondratiev Waves is so important. Surfers love the bigg waves. So do entrepreneurs because bigg waves create more opportunities.
The good news is there’s a bigg wave coming … and it leads to bigg success!
What do you think? Are we on the verge of a Kondratiev Spring?
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(Image in today’s post by timobalk)